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Red115
634836.3
928034.7
478220.3
Blue103
477522.6
435530.5
472323.1
76%Model gave it24%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions98804060120140115103

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+12Teleop
+12Endgame
+12Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
9Leave0
1Coral scored#2
7Coral points12
16Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +8
14Coral scored#16
51Coral points57
2Processor algae#1
5Net algae#3
12Processor points6
20Net points12
32Algae points18
83Total teleop75
Reef
4L4#8
5L3#5
3L2#3
3L1 · trough#2
22Game pieces#22
Bargelevel
16Cage & park16
16Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +12
0Foul points0
115Total score103

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6348
#12
36.31.0
33.634.7
Auto4.6
Teleop30.3
End1.4
red by 5.8
4355
#14
30.51.4
27.729.0
Auto5.5
Teleop21.7
End3.3
Second
34.71.3
32.733.9
Auto4.5
Teleop27.5
End2.7
red by 11.7
4723
#25
23.11.4
21.723.1
Auto5.4
Teleop14.6
End3.1
Third
4782
#27
20.31.3
15.817.1
Auto5.5
Teleop11.3
End3.5
blue by 2.3
22.61.1
20.121.3
Auto3.3
Teleop18.5
End0.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
55%Auto oddsEarned63%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
8%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
14%Barge oddsEarned17%Barge oddsEarned