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Red103
959316.8
347224.9
435530.5
Blue109
928034.7
348026.7
477522.6
26%Model gave it74%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions75924060100120140103109

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+8
Endgame+4
Fouls+6
AutonomousBlue +3
6Leave3
3Coral scored#4
13Coral points19
19Total auto22
TeleoperatedBlue +5
14Coral scored#12
52Coral points43
1Processor algae#2
4Net algae#6
6Processor points12
16Net points24
22Algae points36
74Total teleop79
Reef
8L4#7
4L3#2
2L2#4
3L1 · trough#3
22Game pieces#24
BargeRed +4
6Cage & park2
6Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +6
4Foul points6
103Total score109

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4355
#14
30.51.9
29.031.0
Auto5.5
Teleop21.7
End3.3
blue by 4.2
34.71.0
33.935.0
Auto4.5
Teleop27.5
End2.7
Second
24.91.7
23.024.7
Auto5.8
Teleop16.8
End2.3
blue by 1.8
3480
#18
26.70.9
25.025.9
Auto4.9
Teleop20.2
End1.6
Third
9593
#26
16.81.9
14.816.8
Auto3.5
Teleop13.1
End0.2
blue by 5.8
22.60.9
21.322.2
Auto3.3
Teleop18.5
End0.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
77%Auto oddsEarned44%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
10%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
28%Barge oddsMissed36%Barge oddsMissed