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Red48
754619.8
874111.5
667615.8
Blue19
477513.5
92828.9
588714.9
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions504302060801004819

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+6Auto
+25Teleop
+27Endgame
+29Fouls
AutonomousRed +6
0Leave3
2Coral scored#0
9Coral points0
9Total auto3
TeleoperatedRed +19
6Coral scored#2
21Coral points6
0Processor algae#0
1Net algae#0
0Processor points0
4Net points0
4Algae points0
25Total teleop6
Reef
4L4#1
2L3#1
1L2#0
1L1 · trough#0
9Game pieces#2
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +29
8Foul points6
48Total score19

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
7546
#11
19.80.4
19.919.5
Auto2.5
Teleop15.3
End2.0
red by 4.9
5887
#10
14.92.7
13.811.1
Auto3.4
Teleop8.9
End2.6
Second
6676
#31
15.80.4
11.811.4
Auto2.1
Teleop12.2
End1.5
red by 2.3
4775
#25
13.52.7
13.711.0
Auto2.3
Teleop10.8
End0.5
Third
8741
#32
11.50.4
11.811.4
Auto2.5
Teleop6.3
End2.6
red by 2.5
9282
#41
8.92.7
9.56.9
Auto1.7
Teleop6.6
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
10%Auto oddsMissed8%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
12%Barge oddsEarned20%Barge oddsMissed