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Red126
670235.0
619916.1
930128.0
Blue87
648319.1
620014.2
440129.8
49%Model gave it51%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7677405060709010011012012687

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+21Teleop
+33Endgame
+39Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
9Leave0
1Coral scored#2
3Coral points9
12Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +18
13Coral scored#12
48Coral points44
3Processor algae#2
6Net algae#4
18Processor points12
24Net points16
42Algae points28
90Total teleop72
Reef
5L4#5
4L3#3
2L2#4
3L1 · trough#2
23Game pieces#20
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +39
8Foul points2
126Total score87

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
35.01.8
31.032.8
Auto4.7
Teleop28.2
End2.1
red by 5.2
4401
#28
29.80.4
25.324.9
Auto3.8
Teleop23.6
End2.4
Second
28.01.8
24.326.2
Auto5.1
Teleop15.6
End7.3
red by 8.8
6483
#23
19.10.4
10.810.4
Auto4.7
Teleop13.2
End1.2
Third
6199
#26
16.13.0
5.68.6
Auto3.1
Teleop10.9
End2.1
red by 1.9
6200
#33
14.20.4
20.920.5
Auto3.5
Teleop7.7
End3.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
39%Auto oddsEarned14%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
41%Barge oddsEarned21%Barge oddsMissed