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Red78
440343.8
552625.7
473515.9
Blue69
951329.7
683222.5
531221.3
74%Model gave it26%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions896602040801001201407869

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+1Auto
+11Teleop
+9Endgame
+9Fouls
AutonomousRed +1
6Leave0
1Coral scored#2
7Coral points12
13Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +10
9Coral scored#8
31Coral points29
2Processor algae#0
2Net algae#3
12Processor points0
8Net points12
20Algae points12
51Total teleop41
Reef
4L4#3
2L3#3
2L2#2
2L1 · trough#2
14Game pieces#13
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +9
0Foul points0
78Total score69

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
43.80.2
39.840.0
Auto8.5
Teleop28.7
End6.6
red by 14.1
29.70.9
23.824.6
Auto5.0
Teleop18.4
End6.3
Second
25.70.3
19.720.0
Auto5.4
Teleop17.9
End2.4
red by 3.2
6832
#17
22.51.4
18.620.0
Auto4.4
Teleop15.7
End2.4
Third
4735
#24
15.90.2
15.715.9
Auto3.3
Teleop10.6
End2.0
blue by 5.3
5312
#27
21.31.4
13.815.2
Auto2.7
Teleop15.4
End3.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
33%Auto oddsMissed50%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
75%Barge oddsEarned56%Barge oddsEarned