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Red45
587416.3
829020.7
912014.7
Blue73
477521.8
435529.6
906015.7
21%Model gave it79%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5782020401001201404573

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+12Auto
Teleop+18
Endgame+30
Fouls+28
AutonomousRed +12
3Leave3
4Coral scored#1
18Coral points6
21Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +30
4Coral scored#11
14Coral points38
0Processor algae#1
1Net algae#1
0Processor points6
4Net points4
4Algae points10
18Total teleop48
Reef
3L4#4
2L3#4
2L2#3
1L1 · trough#1
9Game pieces#14
BargeBlue +12
4Cage & park16
4Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +28
2Foul points0
45Total score73

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
8290
#31
20.70.5
20.620.1
Auto5.6
Teleop13.0
End2.2
blue by 8.9
4355
#11
29.60.5
32.232.6
Auto4.1
Teleop21.4
End4.1
Second
5874
#19
16.30.7
14.613.9
Auto4.1
Teleop9.6
End2.6
blue by 5.5
4775
#21
21.80.5
18.819.2
Auto3.2
Teleop17.6
End1.0
Third
9120
#13
14.70.7
14.714.0
Auto4.7
Teleop7.7
End2.3
blue by 1.0
9060
#30
15.70.7
15.215.9
Auto3.5
Teleop10.4
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
53%Auto oddsEarned47%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
29%Barge oddsMissed16%Barge oddsEarned