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Red40
76698.2
620014.2
435529.6
Blue52
570514.8
617018.3
460320.8
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions726201002003004005006004052

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
Teleop+14
Endgame+12
Fouls+12
AutonomousRed +3
6Leave3
1Coral scored#1
6Coral points6
12Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +17
3Coral scored#7
12Coral points25
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#2
6Processor points6
4Net points8
10Algae points14
22Total teleop39
Reef
1L4#3
1L3#2
1L2#2
1L1 · trough#1
6Game pieces#11
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +12
0Foul points0
40Total score52

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4355
#11
29.61.2
31.830.7
Auto4.1
Teleop21.4
End4.1
red by 8.8
4603
#10
20.80.1
19.919.9
Auto4.7
Teleop13.0
End3.1
Second
6200
#33
14.21.7
15.914.2
Auto3.5
Teleop7.7
End3.0
blue by 4.0
6170
#22
18.30.1
18.318.3
Auto2.7
Teleop14.8
End0.8
Third
7669
#37
8.21.6
9.88.2
Auto3.9
Teleop4.1
End0.3
blue by 6.5
5705
#29
14.80.1
14.514.4
Auto3.4
Teleop10.1
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
53%Auto oddsEarned46%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed2%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
40%Barge oddsMissed22%Barge oddsMissed