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Red111
571641.4
440129.8
829020.7
Blue110
531221.3
552625.7
754627.4
86%Model gave it14%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12089406080100140160180111110

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+6Auto
Teleop+3
+7Endgame
+1Fouls
AutonomousRed +6
6Leave3
2Coral scored#2
12Coral points9
18Total auto12
TeleoperatedBlue +9
14Coral scored#13
49Coral points48
2Processor algae#3
4Net algae#5
12Processor points18
16Net points20
28Algae points38
77Total teleop86
Reef
5L4#4
6L3#3
3L2#5
2L1 · trough#3
22Game pieces#23
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Penalties & totalRed +1
0Foul points6
111Total score110

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
41.40.1
41.641.5
Auto4.6
Teleop31.2
End5.6
red by 14.0
7546
#14
27.40.3
27.127.4
Auto2.7
Teleop22.7
End2.0
Second
4401
#28
29.80.1
29.929.9
Auto3.8
Teleop23.6
End2.4
red by 4.0
25.70.3
25.425.7
Auto5.4
Teleop17.9
End2.4
Third
8290
#31
20.70.1
20.920.8
Auto5.6
Teleop13.0
End2.2
blue by 0.5
5312
#27
21.30.3
20.921.3
Auto2.7
Teleop15.4
End3.2