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Red59
776327.0
663919.4
264021.5
Blue45
915020.1
482923.7
368010.8
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions71684060801001205945

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+13Auto
+6Teleop
+16Endgame
+14Fouls
AutonomousRed +13
9Leave3
1Coral scored#0
7Coral points0
16Total auto3
TeleoperatedBlue +7
5Coral scored#7
19Coral points26
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#1
6Processor points6
4Net points4
10Algae points10
29Total teleop36
Reef
3L4#3
2L3#2
1L2#1
0L1 · trough#1
8Game pieces#9
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +14
0Foul points2
59Total score45

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
27.00.4
33.633.2
Auto7.6
Teleop17.7
End1.8
red by 3.3
23.71.9
24.922.9
Auto4.4
Teleop16.9
End2.4
Second
2640
#10
21.50.4
12.011.6
Auto2.4
Teleop16.5
End2.6
red by 1.4
9150
#19
20.11.9
25.623.7
Auto1.9
Teleop16.3
End1.9
Third
6639
#18
19.40.4
17.116.7
Auto4.0
Teleop12.8
End2.5
red by 8.6
3680
#21
10.81.9
11.29.3
Auto1.8
Teleop8.9
End0.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
11%Auto oddsEarned15%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
18%Barge oddsEarned20%Barge oddsMissed