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Red154
264233.8
929744.9
90068.4
Blue142
689438.6
650047.7
153354.6
39%Model gave it61%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions122126100110130140150154142

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+20Teleop
+12Endgame
+12Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
0Leave9
5Coral scored#1
26Coral points7
26Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +10
24Coral scored#19
86Coral points68
2Processor algae#4
6Net algae#5
12Processor points24
24Net points20
36Algae points44
122Total teleop112
Reef
9L4#8
8L3#4
8L2#5
4L1 · trough#3
37Game pieces#29
BargeBlue +8
6Cage & park14
6Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +12
0Foul points0
154Total score142

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
900
#3
68.42.8
53.055.9
Auto16.5
Teleop50.0
End1.9
red by 13.8
1533
#10
54.61.6
42.243.8
Auto12.3
Teleop33.9
End8.4
Second
9297
#12
44.92.8
31.434.2
Auto5.2
Teleop38.3
End1.5
blue by 2.8
6500
#18
47.71.6
39.741.3
Auto9.9
Teleop31.0
End6.8
Third
2642
#35
33.82.8
27.230.0
Auto7.2
Teleop26.4
End0.3
blue by 4.8
6894
#19
38.61.6
35.837.4
Auto5.6
Teleop31.6
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
95%Auto oddsEarned89%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed14%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
12%Barge oddsMissed78%Barge oddsEarned