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Red93
650047.7
322928.7
1007728.9
Blue116
58755.6
350638.1
482827.4
20%Model gave it80%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions961275015020093116

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
Teleop+17
Endgame+29
Fouls+23
AutonomousRed +10
6Leave0
4Coral scored#3
20Coral points16
26Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +27
13Coral scored#13
47Coral points46
1Processor algae#3
1Net algae#5
6Processor points18
4Net points20
10Algae points38
57Total teleop84
Reef
5L4#5
7L3#4
3L2#3
2L1 · trough#4
19Game pieces#24
BargeBlue +12
4Cage & park16
4Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +23
6Foul points0
93Total score116

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6500
#18
47.70.1
37.237.3
Auto9.9
Teleop31.0
End6.8
blue by 7.8
587
#4
55.60.2
51.651.9
Auto12.8
Teleop37.7
End5.1
Second
28.90.1
25.725.7
Auto7.0
Teleop19.5
End2.4
blue by 9.2
38.10.2
31.231.5
Auto7.1
Teleop23.2
End7.8
Third
3229
#38
28.70.1
23.223.3
Auto4.4
Teleop22.4
End2.0
red by 1.3
4828
#21
27.40.2
29.529.8
Auto5.7
Teleop20.6
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
81%Auto oddsEarned75%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
9%Coral oddsMissed9%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
45%Barge oddsMissed43%Barge oddsEarned