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Red150
345928.8
903257.9
350638.1
Blue101
744319.0
672923.7
482921.2
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10373050150200150101

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+31Teleop
+51Endgame
+49Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
9Leave6
1Coral scored#1
7Coral points3
16Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +24
23Coral scored#14
84Coral points50
2Processor algae#3
3Net algae#4
12Processor points18
12Net points16
24Algae points34
108Total teleop84
Reef
9L4#5
7L3#3
5L2#5
3L1 · trough#2
29Game pieces#22
BargeRed +20
24Cage & park4
24Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +49
2Foul points4
150Total score101

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
57.93.1
37.040.1
Auto13.8
Teleop41.0
End3.2
red by 34.2
6729
#30
23.71.3
22.824.2
Auto2.9
Teleop19.9
End0.9
Second
38.13.1
32.235.3
Auto7.1
Teleop23.2
End7.8
red by 16.8
4829
#36
21.21.3
26.728.0
Auto2.7
Teleop16.4
End2.1
Third
3459
#14
28.83.1
20.723.9
Auto4.8
Teleop17.5
End6.5
red by 9.8
7443
#25
19.01.3
16.117.4
Auto5.8
Teleop11.0
End2.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
42%Auto oddsEarned24%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsEarned4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
53%Barge oddsEarned12%Barge oddsMissed