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Red155
873854.2
153354.6
482827.4
Blue111
1026012.3
900843.4
650047.7
70%Model gave it30%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12910350150200155111

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+44Teleop
+44Endgame
+44Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
3Leave0
8Coral scored#6
41Coral points30
44Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +30
20Coral scored#14
71Coral points49
2Processor algae#2
4Net algae#2
12Processor points12
16Net points8
28Algae points20
99Total teleop69
Reef
7L4#9
8L3#4
8L2#3
5L1 · trough#4
34Game pieces#24
Bargelevel
6Cage & park6
6Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +44
6Foul points6
155Total score111

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1533
#10
54.61.8
43.845.6
Auto12.3
Teleop33.9
End8.4
red by 6.9
6500
#18
47.70.2
41.341.5
Auto9.9
Teleop31.0
End6.8
Second
8738
#16
54.21.8
48.850.5
Auto12.8
Teleop39.2
End2.2
red by 10.9
9008
#20
43.40.2
40.040.3
Auto7.4
Teleop31.0
End5.0
Third
4828
#21
27.41.8
30.031.7
Auto5.7
Teleop20.6
End1.0
red by 15.1
12.30.2
20.020.2
Auto5.9
Teleop5.7
End0.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
79%Auto oddsEarned77%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
8%Coral oddsEarned5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
77%Barge oddsMissed55%Barge oddsMissed