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Qual 252025 FIRST North Carolina State Championship
Red127
903257.9
373740.5
519023.3
Blue81
382226.8
872736.9
264233.8
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions989870809011012013014012781

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+30Teleop
+46Endgame
+46Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
9Leave9
1Coral scored#1
7Coral points4
16Total auto13
TeleoperatedRed +27
17Coral scored#10
61Coral points36
3Processor algae#2
4Net algae#5
18Processor points12
16Net points20
34Algae points32
95Total teleop68
Reef
5L4#3
5L3#4
5L2#2
3L1 · trough#2
25Game pieces#18
BargeRed +16
16Cage & park0
16Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +46
0Foul points0
127Total score81

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9032
#2
57.92.2
40.1→42.4
Auto13.8
Teleop41.0
End3.2
red by 21.1
8727
#23
36.91.3
41.7→40.4
Auto8.9
Teleop26.4
End1.5
Second
3737
#7
40.52.2
29.9→32.2
Auto6.1
Teleop24.3
End10.1
red by 6.7
2642
#35
33.81.3
30.0→28.7
Auto7.2
Teleop26.4
End0.3
Third
5190
#24
23.32.2
17.6→19.8
Auto3.1
Teleop17.8
End2.4
blue by 3.5
3822
#27
26.81.3
22.7→21.4
Auto10.1
Teleop15.2
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
88%Auto oddsEarned85%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed2%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
65%Barge oddsEarned12%Barge oddsMissed