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Red187
842944.6
949679.0
350638.1
Blue106
272434.0
903257.9
929822.1
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions17410250150200250187106

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+13Auto
+65Teleop
+75Endgame
+81Fouls
AutonomousRed +13
0Leave6
9Coral scored#5
44Coral points25
44Total auto31
TeleoperatedRed +52
26Coral scored#15
93Coral points53
3Processor algae#1
3Net algae#3
18Processor points6
12Net points12
30Algae points18
123Total teleop71
Reef
12L4#7
9L3#5
8L2#5
6L1 · trough#3
41Game pieces#24
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +81
6Foul points0
187Total score106

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
79.01.2
75.776.9
Auto21.7
Teleop50.5
End6.8
red by 21.1
57.90.4
49.649.2
Auto13.8
Teleop41.0
End3.2
Second
44.61.2
38.139.4
Auto15.6
Teleop27.5
End1.4
red by 10.6
2724
#17
34.00.4
34.233.8
Auto8.0
Teleop20.6
End5.4
Third
38.11.2
37.839.0
Auto7.1
Teleop23.2
End7.8
red by 16.0
9298
#28
22.10.4
17.316.8
Auto4.8
Teleop15.0
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
95%Auto oddsEarned93%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
72%Coral oddsEarned6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
84%Barge oddsEarned32%Barge oddsMissed