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Red202
949679.0
272434.0
90068.4
Blue158
153354.6
650251.1
453450.1
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions19115350100250202158

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+46Teleop
+48Endgame
+44Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
6Leave6
9Coral scored#6
45Coral points31
51Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +32
25Coral scored#23
89Coral points83
3Processor algae#2
9Net algae#4
18Processor points12
36Net points16
54Algae points28
143Total teleop111
Reef
13L4#11
8L3#8
7L2#6
6L1 · trough#4
46Game pieces#35
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Penalties & totalRed +44
2Foul points6
202Total score158

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
79.00.4
75.876.2
Auto21.7
Teleop50.5
End6.8
red by 24.4
1533
#10
54.60.0
51.551.4
Auto12.3
Teleop33.9
End8.4
Second
900
#3
68.40.4
65.265.6
Auto16.5
Teleop50.0
End1.9
red by 17.3
6502
#22
51.10.0
48.047.9
Auto8.3
Teleop41.9
End0.9
Third
2724
#17
34.00.4
30.831.2
Auto8.0
Teleop20.6
End5.4
blue by 16.1
4534
#31
50.10.0
46.946.9
Auto13.5
Teleop34.9
End1.6