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Red131
689438.6
874631.8
873854.2
Blue124
872736.9
373740.5
650047.7
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1291266080100140160180131124

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+11
+15Teleop
+7Endgame
+7Fouls
AutonomousBlue +11
0Leave3
2Coral scored#4
12Coral points20
12Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +26
16Coral scored#18
57Coral points63
5Processor algae#1
7Net algae#5
30Processor points6
28Net points20
58Algae points26
115Total teleop89
Reef
7L4#9
5L3#7
4L2#3
2L1 · trough#3
30Game pieces#28
BargeBlue +8
4Cage & park12
4Total endgame12
Penalties & totalRed +7
0Foul points0
131Total score124

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
8738
#16
54.20.2
53.753.9
Auto12.8
Teleop39.2
End2.2
red by 6.5
6500
#18
47.70.1
46.346.3
Auto9.9
Teleop31.0
End6.8
Second
6894
#19
38.60.2
38.138.3
Auto5.6
Teleop31.6
End1.4
blue by 1.9
40.50.1
39.039.1
Auto6.1
Teleop24.3
End10.1
Third
31.80.2
31.331.5
Auto5.8
Teleop25.4
End0.6
blue by 5.0
8727
#23
36.90.1
35.435.5
Auto8.9
Teleop26.4
End1.5