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Red116
453440.5
456141.9
651215.7
Blue31
519012.3
1007223.3
33368.0
95%Model gave it5%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11457010015011631

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
+69Teleop
+79Endgame
+85Fouls
AutonomousRed +11
6Leave3
3Coral scored#1
14Coral points6
20Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +58
11Coral scored#3
38Coral points12
2Processor algae#0
6Net algae#1
12Processor points0
24Net points4
36Algae points4
74Total teleop16
Reef
4L4#1
4L3#1
4L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
22Game pieces#5
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +85
6Foul points0
116Total score31

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
41.90.8
39.340.0
Auto8.5
Teleop27.0
End6.4
red by 18.5
23.31.9
24.222.4
Auto5.3
Teleop16.2
End1.9
Second
40.51.1
34.735.8
Auto10.7
Teleop26.9
End3.0
red by 28.2
5190
#13
12.31.9
14.412.6
Auto4.0
Teleop5.4
End2.9
Third
6512
#19
15.70.9
16.517.4
Auto3.0
Teleop8.0
End4.6
red by 7.6
3336
#28
8.02.5
11.59.1
Auto2.2
Teleop4.0
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
86%Auto oddsEarned64%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
66%Barge oddsEarned14%Barge oddsMissed