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Red108
456141.9
453440.5
820519.1
Blue49
482924.2
929728.6
874622.9
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions109865010015010849

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+18Auto
+41Teleop
+53Endgame
+59Fouls
AutonomousRed +18
3Leave9
5Coral scored#0
24Coral points0
27Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +23
10Coral scored#6
35Coral points22
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#2
12Processor points6
12Net points8
24Algae points14
59Total teleop36
Reef
7L4#2
4L3#2
3L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
20Game pieces#9
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Penalties & totalRed +59
6Foul points0
108Total score49

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
41.90.1
41.141.1
Auto8.5
Teleop27.0
End6.4
red by 13.3
9297
#14
28.60.7
30.429.7
Auto4.8
Teleop21.3
End2.5
Second
40.50.1
39.639.7
Auto10.7
Teleop26.9
End3.0
red by 16.3
4829
#16
24.20.7
26.025.3
Auto4.6
Teleop18.0
End1.7
Third
8205
#27
19.10.1
18.318.4
Auto4.3
Teleop13.7
End1.1
blue by 3.8
8746
#11
22.90.7
24.724.0
Auto3.0
Teleop18.7
End1.2