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Red37
688819.3
998215.3
900511.2
Blue51
36809.4
264011.6
58739.2
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions29700501001502002503003504003751

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+8
Teleop+12
Endgame+2
Fouls+14
AutonomousBlue +8
9Leave3
0Coral scored#3
0Coral points14
9Total auto17
TeleoperatedBlue +4
2Coral scored#4
8Coral points14
0Processor algae#1
2Net algae#0
0Processor points6
8Net points0
8Algae points6
16Total teleop20
Reef
1L4#2
1L3#2
0L2#2
0L1 · trough#1
4Game pieces#8
BargeRed +10
12Cage & park2
12Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +14
0Foul points12
37Total score51

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6888
#22
19.30.1
15.815.9
Auto2.0
Teleop13.2
End4.2
blue by 19.8
587
#1
39.21.4
39.137.8
Auto9.6
Teleop25.4
End4.1
Second
15.30.1
14.014.1
Auto3.7
Teleop7.9
End3.5
red by 3.7
2640
#21
11.61.4
13.211.8
Auto1.6
Teleop9.0
End1.0
Third
9005
#14
11.20.1
6.46.5
Auto3.2
Teleop6.8
End1.2
red by 1.7
3680
#10
9.41.4
7.25.8
Auto2.4
Teleop6.1
End0.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
16%Auto oddsMissed44%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
23%Barge oddsMissed12%Barge oddsEarned