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Red46
99963.4
12255.9
998215.3
Blue33
51904.8
688819.3
264011.6
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions3230010204050604633

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+5Teleop
+15Endgame
+13Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
3Leave3
1Coral scored#0
3Coral points0
6Total auto3
TeleoperatedRed +2
4Coral scored#4
14Coral points14
1Processor algae#0
0Net algae#1
6Processor points0
0Net points4
6Algae points4
20Total teleop18
Reef
2L4#1
1L3#1
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
6Game pieces#5
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +13
6Foul points8
46Total score33

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
15.32.1
14.116.2
Auto3.7
Teleop7.9
End3.5
blue by 4.0
6888
#22
19.30.8
15.915.1
Auto2.0
Teleop13.2
End4.2
Second
1225
#13
5.91.3
4.05.3
Auto2.3
Teleop1.6
End2.1
blue by 5.7
2640
#21
11.60.8
11.811.0
Auto1.6
Teleop9.0
End1.0
Third
9996
#11
3.42.1
0.32.4
Auto1.7
Teleop1.1
End0.5
blue by 1.5
5190
#23
4.80.8
6.15.3
Auto1.9
Teleop1.5
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
12%Auto oddsMissed7%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
19%Barge oddsEarned16%Barge oddsMissed