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Red100
998215.3
51904.8
572737.3
Blue74
319621.0
560712.9
87576.5
71%Model gave it29%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions693305010015010074

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+13Auto
+4Teleop
+8Endgame
+26Fouls
AutonomousRed +13
0Leave0
4Coral scored#2
22Coral points9
22Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +9
7Coral scored#12
24Coral points43
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#2
12Processor points6
12Net points8
24Algae points14
48Total teleop57
Reef
5L4#5
2L3#3
3L2#3
1L1 · trough#3
16Game pieces#17
BargeRed +4
6Cage & park2
6Total endgame2
Penalties & totalRed +26
24Foul points6
100Total score74

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
37.30.1
37.937.9
Auto5.7
Teleop29.6
End2.1
red by 16.3
3196
#16
21.00.4
18.719.1
Auto2.4
Teleop18.5
End0.1
Second
15.30.1
16.216.3
Auto3.7
Teleop7.9
End3.5
red by 2.5
12.90.4
10.510.9
Auto3.2
Teleop9.5
End0.2
Third
5190
#23
4.80.1
5.35.4
Auto1.9
Teleop1.5
End1.4
blue by 1.7
8757
#18
6.50.4
4.14.6
Auto1.3
Teleop4.0
End1.3