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Red123
350619.6
688819.3
915024.7
Blue80
36809.4
493513.8
66396.9
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5713020408010012014012380

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+29Teleop
+37Endgame
+43Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
9Leave0
1Coral scored#2
4Coral points9
13Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +25
16Coral scored#15
58Coral points55
2Processor algae#1
5Net algae#1
12Processor points6
20Net points4
32Algae points10
90Total teleop65
Reef
4L4#6
7L3#5
3L2#3
3L1 · trough#3
24Game pieces#19
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Penalties & totalRed +43
6Foul points0
123Total score80

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
24.71.2
20.421.6
Auto3.4
Teleop20.5
End0.7
red by 10.8
4935
#15
13.81.1
10.411.5
Auto3.4
Teleop8.3
End2.2
Second
19.61.2
15.416.6
Auto2.9
Teleop14.5
End2.2
red by 10.2
3680
#10
9.41.1
6.07.1
Auto2.4
Teleop6.1
End0.9
Third
6888
#22
19.31.2
15.116.3
Auto2.0
Teleop13.2
End4.2
red by 12.5
6639
#24
6.91.1
3.44.6
Auto1.4
Teleop4.7
End0.6