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Red107
903841.3
876837.6
545832.0
Blue118
220436.7
84043.7
135146.8
39%Model gave it61%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions117139050100200250107118

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+2Auto
Teleop+11
Endgame+13
Fouls+11
AutonomousRed +2
6Leave9
4Coral scored#3
19Coral points14
25Total auto23
TeleoperatedBlue +13
13Coral scored#21
48Coral points75
2Processor algae#1
5Net algae#3
12Processor points6
20Net points12
32Algae points18
80Total teleop93
Reef
7L4#8
3L3#8
4L2#4
3L1 · trough#4
24Game pieces#28
BargeBlue +2
0Cage & park2
0Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +11
2Foul points0
107Total score118

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9038
#14
41.30.3
40.139.8
Auto12.5
Teleop28.8
End-0.0
blue by 5.6
1351
#11
46.80.5
47.046.5
Auto13.7
Teleop31.6
End1.5
Second
8768
#13
37.60.3
37.236.9
Auto4.8
Teleop30.7
End2.1
blue by 6.1
840
#10
43.70.5
41.040.4
Auto5.4
Teleop33.6
End4.7
Third
5458
#21
32.00.3
31.831.5
Auto7.1
Teleop23.0
End1.9
blue by 4.7
2204
#24
36.70.5
38.137.6
Auto8.8
Teleop25.9
End2.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
83%Auto oddsEarned86%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
70%Coral oddsEarned22%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
16%Barge oddsMissed72%Barge oddsMissed