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Red140
903841.3
641857.2
661942.9
Blue108
510443.1
835.7
681434.0
78%Model gave it22%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions141105050200140108

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+26Auto
+30Teleop
+32Endgame
+32Fouls
AutonomousRed +26
3Leave6
9Coral scored#3
46Coral points17
49Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +4
18Coral scored#18
63Coral points63
1Processor algae#1
4Net algae#3
6Processor points6
16Net points12
22Algae points18
85Total teleop81
Reef
7L4#7
8L3#6
7L2#5
5L1 · trough#3
32Game pieces#25
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +32
0Foul points0
140Total score108

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
57.20.7
50.751.4
Auto18.1
Teleop33.2
End5.9
red by 14.1
43.10.4
35.636.0
Auto6.0
Teleop29.8
End7.3
Second
42.90.7
38.839.5
Auto4.9
Teleop35.0
End3.0
red by 7.2
8
#23
35.70.4
40.741.0
Auto8.1
Teleop23.7
End3.9
Third
9038
#14
41.30.7
39.840.5
Auto12.5
Teleop28.8
End-0.0
red by 7.3
6814
#26
34.00.4
26.126.5
Auto8.3
Teleop24.3
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
96%Auto oddsEarned89%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
60%Coral oddsEarned24%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
24%Barge oddsMissed69%Barge oddsMissed