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Red164
84665.1
545832.0
947053.2
Blue148
510443.1
213557.3
84160.2
51%Model gave it49%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1511470100200300400164148

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+25Auto
+26Teleop
+16Endgame
+16Fouls
AutonomousRed +25
0Leave9
9Coral scored#2
44Coral points10
44Total auto19
TeleoperatedRed +1
21Coral scored#21
76Coral points77
3Processor algae#2
3Net algae#4
18Processor points12
12Net points16
30Algae points28
106Total teleop105
Reef
9L4#8
9L3#7
9L2#4
3L1 · trough#4
36Game pieces#29
BargeBlue +10
14Cage & park24
14Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +16
0Foul points0
164Total score148

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
846
#4
65.11.4
63.464.8
Auto16.1
Teleop42.6
End6.5
red by 5.0
841
#9
60.20.6
55.155.7
Auto12.4
Teleop40.3
End7.5
Second
53.21.4
50.752.1
Auto11.9
Teleop39.6
End1.7
blue by 4.1
57.30.6
47.448.0
Auto16.6
Teleop37.7
End3.1
Third
5458
#21
32.01.4
28.730.1
Auto7.1
Teleop23.0
End1.9
blue by 11.1
43.10.6
36.036.7
Auto6.0
Teleop29.8
End7.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
89%Auto oddsEarned94%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
36%Coral oddsMissed55%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
26%Barge oddsEarned88%Barge oddsEarned