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Red152
879342.8
541962.2
835.7
Blue141
325736.0
801630.8
196741.5
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions157100050200250152141

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+8Auto
Teleop+5
+5Endgame
+11Fouls
AutonomousRed +8
9Leave3
5Coral scored#4
23Coral points21
32Total auto24
TeleoperatedBlue +13
22Coral scored#24
78Coral points85
1Processor algae#2
4Net algae#4
6Processor points12
16Net points16
22Algae points28
100Total teleop113
Reef
9L4#13
10L3#5
4L2#6
4L1 · trough#4
32Game pieces#34
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +11
6Foul points0
152Total score141

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
62.20.4
62.162.5
Auto16.5
Teleop37.0
End8.7
red by 20.7
1967
#17
41.52.7
41.444.1
Auto11.3
Teleop29.2
End0.9
Second
8793
#15
42.80.4
37.938.3
Auto10.5
Teleop27.7
End4.6
red by 6.8
3257
#20
36.02.7
28.230.9
Auto2.1
Teleop32.1
End1.8
Third
8
#23
35.70.4
36.837.2
Auto8.1
Teleop23.7
End3.9
red by 4.9
8016
#19
30.82.7
27.330.1
Auto5.8
Teleop22.8
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
96%Auto oddsEarned52%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
34%Coral oddsMissed13%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
81%Barge oddsEarned37%Barge oddsMissed