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Red160
949681.2
919816.7
873849.0
Blue119
58751.6
929817.3
650238.3
95%Model gave it5%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions16811050100150200250160119

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+27Teleop
+41Endgame
+41Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
3Leave9
7Coral scored#2
37Coral points10
40Total auto19
TeleoperatedRed +6
17Coral scored#19
62Coral points70
3Processor algae#2
6Net algae#4
18Processor points12
24Net points16
42Algae points28
104Total teleop98
Reef
9L4#9
5L3#6
5L2#3
5L1 · trough#3
33Game pieces#27
BargeRed +14
16Cage & park2
16Total endgame2
Penalties & totalRed +41
0Foul points0
160Total score119

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
81.20.3
80.580.9
Auto18.3
Teleop55.7
End7.2
red by 29.5
587
#3
51.60.3
50.350.7
Auto8.6
Teleop41.5
End1.5
Second
49.00.3
48.448.7
Auto10.2
Teleop36.8
End2.1
red by 10.7
38.30.3
37.037.3
Auto6.8
Teleop30.1
End1.5
Third
9198
#22
16.70.3
16.116.4
Auto4.0
Teleop10.6
End2.1
blue by 0.6
9298
#18
17.30.3
16.016.3
Auto4.5
Teleop11.5
End1.4