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Red178
949681.2
572739.9
97249.9
Blue91
776330.9
493520.7
919816.7
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1436205010020017891

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+75Teleop
+85Endgame
+87Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
9Leave3
3Coral scored#1
17Coral points6
26Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +58
22Coral scored#11
78Coral points38
2Processor algae#3
11Net algae#5
12Processor points18
44Net points20
56Algae points38
134Total teleop76
Reef
9L4#5
7L3#3
6L2#2
3L1 · trough#2
38Game pieces#20
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +87
2Foul points0
178Total score91

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
81.22.6
76.879.4
Auto18.3
Teleop55.7
End7.2
red by 50.3
7763
#24
30.90.9
28.429.3
Auto5.3
Teleop24.1
End1.6
Second
5727
#10
39.92.6
36.839.4
Auto5.7
Teleop32.8
End1.5
red by 19.3
4935
#11
20.70.9
19.820.7
Auto4.3
Teleop13.5
End2.9
Third
9724
#27
9.92.9
7.09.9
Auto3.5
Teleop3.3
End3.1
blue by 6.8
9198
#22
16.71.0
14.015.0
Auto4.0
Teleop10.6
End2.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
81%Auto oddsEarned58%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
34%Coral oddsEarned4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
52%Barge oddsEarned37%Barge oddsMissed