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Red97
1030221.6
453445.3
820514.4
Blue82
929619.3
1026015.9
651226.2
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9665501502009782

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+5Auto
+27Teleop
+15Endgame
+15Fouls
AutonomousRed +5
6Leave6
3Coral scored#2
17Coral points12
23Total auto18
TeleoperatedRed +22
14Coral scored#10
50Coral points36
2Processor algae#0
2Net algae#3
12Processor points0
8Net points12
20Algae points12
70Total teleop48
Reef
6L4#5
5L3#2
5L2#3
1L1 · trough#2
21Game pieces#15
BargeBlue +12
4Cage & park16
4Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +15
0Foul points0
97Total score82

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
45.30.5
44.545.0
Auto14.8
Teleop28.5
End1.9
red by 19.0
26.20.9
18.819.7
Auto5.5
Teleop13.6
End7.2
Second
21.60.5
15.516.0
Auto4.3
Teleop15.5
End1.9
red by 2.4
9296
#19
19.30.9
19.420.3
Auto5.7
Teleop11.5
End2.1
Third
8205
#29
14.40.5
15.916.4
Auto3.5
Teleop10.5
End0.4
blue by 1.5
15.90.9
16.617.5
Auto5.6
Teleop8.7
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
70%Auto oddsEarned62%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
12%Barge oddsMissed31%Barge oddsEarned