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Red145
261452.3
255916.8
446749.7
Blue155
317374.8
402743.5
902213.9
28%Model gave it72%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12815050100200145155

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+14
Teleop+8
Endgame+10
Fouls+10
AutonomousBlue +14
0Leave3
5Coral scored#7
23Coral points34
23Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +6
18Coral scored#19
64Coral points68
4Processor algae#3
5Net algae#4
24Processor points18
20Net points16
44Algae points34
108Total teleop102
Reef
11L4#6
5L3#7
3L2#8
4L1 · trough#5
32Game pieces#33
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +10
0Foul points0
145Total score155

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
52.31.6
49.551.0
Auto12.1
Teleop34.2
End6.1
blue by 22.4
74.81.1
74.375.4
Auto17.4
Teleop45.8
End11.5
Second
49.71.6
48.450.0
Auto12.0
Teleop32.6
End5.1
red by 6.2
43.51.1
42.643.7
Auto10.7
Teleop27.7
End5.0
Third
2559
#10
16.81.6
15.116.6
Auto4.5
Teleop7.9
End4.4
red by 2.9
9022
#19
13.91.1
13.414.5
Auto2.6
Teleop9.3
End2.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
91%Auto oddsEarned89%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
24%Coral oddsMissed35%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
73%Barge oddsEarned93%Barge oddsEarned