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Red111
565822.8
614642.5
534842.7
Blue44
909242.6
467434.4
423814.2
67%Model gave it33%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions105875015020011144

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+49Teleop
+41Endgame
+67Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
9Leave6
1Coral scored#1
7Coral points6
16Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +45
10Coral scored#4
37Coral points14
3Processor algae#0
2Net algae#1
18Processor points0
8Net points4
26Algae points4
63Total teleop18
Reef
5L4#1
2L3#2
3L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
16Game pieces#6
BargeBlue +8
6Cage & park14
6Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +67
26Foul points0
111Total score44

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
42.70.8
38.537.7
Auto7.2
Teleop29.3
End6.2
red by 0.1
9092
#10
42.64.1
31.727.7
Auto9.9
Teleop25.1
End7.6
Second
42.50.8
33.933.1
Auto5.6
Teleop32.5
End4.4
red by 8.1
4674
#18
34.42.4
30.728.3
Auto4.9
Teleop21.6
End7.8
Third
5658
#47
22.80.8
20.019.2
Auto4.5
Teleop15.7
End2.5
red by 8.6
4238
#48
14.24.1
18.214.2
Auto2.1
Teleop7.2
End4.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
42%Auto oddsEarned68%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
10%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
37%Barge oddsEarned77%Barge oddsEarned