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Red114
327522.8
313427.8
614642.5
Blue106
436033.1
1017323.1
825527.8
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions107834060100120140160114106

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
Teleop+2
Endgame+2
+8Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
9Leave3
1Coral scored#1
7Coral points6
16Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +9
18Coral scored#18
64Coral points63
1Processor algae#2
3Net algae#4
6Processor points12
12Net points16
18Algae points28
82Total teleop91
Reef
7L4#6
4L3#6
5L2#5
3L1 · trough#2
23Game pieces#25
Bargelevel
6Cage & park6
6Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +8
10Foul points0
114Total score106

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
42.50.1
39.239.3
Auto5.6
Teleop32.5
End4.4
red by 9.4
4360
#19
33.11.4
29.330.7
Auto4.0
Teleop26.4
End2.7
Second
3134
#15
27.80.1
28.628.7
Auto4.9
Teleop20.9
End2.0
red by 0.1
8255
#44
27.82.1
23.625.8
Auto2.3
Teleop23.2
End2.3
Third
3275
#27
22.80.1
23.824.0
Auto3.9
Teleop16.9
End2.1
blue by 0.3
23.11.4
21.322.6
Auto4.0
Teleop13.8
End5.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
53%Auto oddsEarned31%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
13%Coral oddsEarned4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
70%Barge oddsMissed56%Barge oddsMissed