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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions18011750100150200250121122

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
Teleop+1
+1Endgame
Fouls+1
AutonomousRed +10
9Leave0
4Coral scored#4
21Coral points20
30Total auto20
TeleoperatedBlue +11
19Coral scored#19
67Coral points68
1Processor algae#2
3Net algae#4
6Processor points12
12Net points16
18Algae points28
85Total teleop96
Reef
12L4#6
3L3#10
3L2#4
5L1 · trough#3
27Game pieces#29
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +1
0Foul points2
121Total score122

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
76.43.1
74.771.6
Auto21.5
Teleop45.8
End9.1
red by 33.0
5422
#38
43.30.2
43.643.7
Auto9.8
Teleop28.5
End5.0
Second
1729
#48
38.53.1
48.645.5
Auto10.3
Teleop25.4
End2.8
red by 0.1
8567
#22
38.30.2
30.931.1
Auto6.5
Teleop30.1
End1.7
Third
181
#39
35.13.1
29.726.6
Auto3.4
Teleop28.8
End2.9
red by 13.4
8544
#43
21.70.2
29.229.4
Auto4.6
Teleop13.6
End3.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
97%Auto oddsEarned79%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
50%Coral oddsEarned25%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
76%Barge oddsMissed44%Barge oddsMissed