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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1481125010020013898

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+22Teleop
+34Endgame
+40Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
0Leave6
4Coral scored#1
20Coral points7
20Total auto13
TeleoperatedRed +15
19Coral scored#16
68Coral points57
2Processor algae#2
4Net algae#3
12Processor points12
16Net points12
28Algae points24
96Total teleop81
Reef
6L4#6
10L3#5
5L2#3
2L1 · trough#3
29Game pieces#22
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +40
6Foul points0
138Total score98

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
237
#35
41.30.3
39.039.3
Auto8.2
Teleop30.7
End2.4
red by 1.5
3182
#31
39.80.1
32.632.5
Auto5.8
Teleop26.5
End7.4
Second
2064
#36
39.70.3
41.541.8
Auto7.6
Teleop23.4
End8.8
red by 3.9
1991
#42
35.90.1
27.727.5
Auto5.1
Teleop27.6
End3.1
Third
181
#39
35.10.3
29.429.7
Auto3.4
Teleop28.8
End2.9
red by 6.8
9710
#44
28.30.1
24.624.5
Auto6.8
Teleop19.6
End1.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
74%Auto oddsEarned59%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
25%Coral oddsMissed9%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
57%Barge oddsEarned39%Barge oddsMissed