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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions18211750100150200250121128

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
Teleop+19
Endgame+7
Fouls+7
AutonomousRed +10
3Leave6
8Coral scored#6
41Coral points28
44Total auto34
TeleoperatedBlue +29
10Coral scored#16
37Coral points56
2Processor algae#3
3Net algae#4
12Processor points18
12Net points16
24Algae points34
61Total teleop90
Reef
9L4#7
4L3#6
4L2#4
1L1 · trough#5
23Game pieces#29
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +7
0Foul points0
121Total score128

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4909
#23
71.82.5
74.672.1
Auto21.1
Teleop40.5
End10.2
red by 15.7
7153
#33
56.00.9
47.948.8
Auto13.2
Teleop36.2
End6.6
Second
1058
#34
47.02.5
43.641.1
Auto10.5
Teleop28.7
End7.8
blue by 8.3
571
#15
55.30.9
47.748.7
Auto11.1
Teleop42.2
End2.1
Third
999
#26
45.02.5
40.538.0
Auto9.9
Teleop32.0
End3.2
red by 25.1
501
#18
19.90.9
18.619.5
Auto4.8
Teleop11.0
End4.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
89%Auto oddsEarned88%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
40%Coral oddsMissed35%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
92%Barge oddsEarned20%Barge oddsMissed