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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions164164165170175180190178197

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+2Auto
Teleop+17
Endgame+15
Fouls+19
AutonomousRed +2
0Leave3
9Coral scored#8
44Coral points39
44Total auto42
TeleoperatedBlue +19
24Coral scored#18
88Coral points65
3Processor algae#6
3Net algae#9
18Processor points36
12Net points36
30Algae points72
118Total teleop137
Reef
13L4#9
12L3#7
5L2#6
3L1 · trough#4
39Game pieces#41
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +19
0Foul points4
178Total score197

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
95
#29
60.20.8
59.260.0
Auto20.4
Teleop33.4
End6.5
blue by 14.4
133
#9
74.61.8
67.969.8
Auto17.8
Teleop45.1
End11.8
Second
7127
#13
59.20.8
53.554.3
Auto9.3
Teleop47.1
End2.8
red by 3.8
571
#15
55.31.8
48.650.5
Auto11.1
Teleop42.2
End2.1
Third
1729
#48
38.50.8
42.243.0
Auto10.3
Teleop25.4
End2.8
blue by 2.8
237
#35
41.31.8
37.539.4
Auto8.2
Teleop30.7
End2.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
96%Auto oddsEarned93%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
36%Coral oddsEarned60%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
67%Barge oddsEarned65%Barge oddsEarned