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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions158162130140150170180190200154172

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
Teleop+6
Endgame+18
Fouls+18
AutonomousRed +21
0Leave6
9Coral scored#3
44Coral points17
44Total auto23
TeleoperatedBlue +27
19Coral scored#22
68Coral points79
2Processor algae#2
4Net algae#8
12Processor points12
16Net points32
28Algae points44
96Total teleop123
Reef
10L4#10
7L3#6
8L2#5
3L1 · trough#4
34Game pieces#35
BargeBlue +12
14Cage & park26
14Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +18
0Foul points0
154Total score172

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
190
#8
79.80.5
80.180.5
Auto21.8
Teleop49.0
End9.0
red by 21.1
230
#17
58.71.5
56.658.0
Auto17.1
Teleop33.2
End8.5
Second
8626
#37
44.80.5
34.935.3
Auto7.3
Teleop34.5
End3.0
blue by 2.9
2423
#27
47.71.5
49.350.8
Auto14.9
Teleop27.3
End5.4
Third
9710
#44
28.30.5
26.727.2
Auto6.8
Teleop19.6
End1.9
blue by 18.0
663
#19
46.31.5
37.939.4
Auto6.1
Teleop37.8
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
89%Auto oddsEarned95%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
79%Coral oddsMissed60%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
66%Barge oddsEarned55%Barge oddsEarned