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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15011950100200250127129

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+2Auto
0Teleop0
Endgame+2
Fouls+2
AutonomousRed +2
6Leave3
3Coral scored#3
14Coral points15
20Total auto18
TeleoperatedBlue +2
23Coral scored#21
83Coral points75
2Processor algae#3
2Net algae#3
12Processor points18
8Net points12
20Algae points30
103Total teleop105
Reef
7L4#6
9L3#6
6L2#7
4L1 · trough#5
30Game pieces#30
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +2
0Foul points0
127Total score129

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
999
#26
45.01.5
39.437.9
Auto9.9
Teleop32.0
End3.2
blue by 2.0
1058
#34
47.00.0
41.241.1
Auto10.5
Teleop28.7
End7.8
Second
9101
#25
42.11.5
43.141.6
Auto6.4
Teleop30.6
End5.0
red by 6.2
1991
#42
35.90.0
30.029.9
Auto5.1
Teleop27.6
End3.1
Third
1729
#48
38.51.5
43.041.5
Auto10.3
Teleop25.4
End2.8
red by 5.9
32.50.0
29.129.1
Auto6.2
Teleop24.6
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
91%Auto oddsEarned85%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
34%Coral oddsEarned40%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
63%Barge oddsMissed46%Barge oddsMissed