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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10617950150200250130166

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+28
Teleop+46
Endgame+34
Fouls+36
AutonomousBlue +28
3Leave9
4Coral scored#8
20Coral points42
23Total auto51
TeleoperatedBlue +18
18Coral scored#15
63Coral points55
2Processor algae#3
4Net algae#9
12Processor points18
16Net points36
28Algae points54
91Total teleop109
Reef
10L4#9
6L3#6
4L2#5
2L1 · trough#3
28Game pieces#35
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +36
0Foul points2
130Total score166

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1058
#34
47.01.1
41.142.1
Auto10.5
Teleop28.7
End7.8
blue by 13.2
95
#29
60.20.3
60.860.5
Auto20.4
Teleop33.4
End6.5
Second
155
#21
42.11.1
37.238.3
Auto9.1
Teleop27.5
End5.4
blue by 16.6
230
#17
58.70.3
59.859.5
Auto17.1
Teleop33.2
End8.5
Third
6153
#47
22.81.1
21.923.0
Auto2.2
Teleop13.2
End7.5
blue by 15.5
8567
#22
38.30.3
33.533.2
Auto6.5
Teleop30.1
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
85%Auto oddsEarned96%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed34%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
86%Barge oddsEarned85%Barge oddsMissed