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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions20411850100150250300154157

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+7Teleop
+7Endgame
Fouls+3
AutonomousRed +3
6Leave3
5Coral scored#5
24Coral points24
30Total auto27
TeleoperatedRed +4
16Coral scored#17
56Coral points62
3Processor algae#2
6Net algae#5
18Processor points12
24Net points20
42Algae points32
98Total teleop94
Reef
7L4#6
5L3#9
4L2#3
5L1 · trough#4
30Game pieces#29
Bargelevel
26Cage & park26
26Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +3
0Foul points10
154Total score157

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
190
#8
79.82.1
79.677.6
Auto21.8
Teleop49.0
End9.0
red by 32.8
1058
#34
47.01.9
41.443.3
Auto10.5
Teleop28.7
End7.8
Second
166
#24
57.52.1
58.556.4
Auto8.6
Teleop38.9
End9.9
red by 17.7
3182
#31
39.81.9
35.637.5
Auto5.8
Teleop26.5
End7.4
Third
1071
#28
40.52.1
40.938.8
Auto7.3
Teleop28.7
End4.4
red by 2.2
8567
#22
38.31.9
35.937.8
Auto6.5
Teleop30.1
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
94%Auto oddsEarned89%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
91%Coral oddsMissed26%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
97%Barge oddsEarned87%Barge oddsEarned