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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions175215100150200250300204214

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+13Auto
Teleop+32
Endgame+14
Fouls+10
AutonomousRed +13
0Leave0
8Coral scored#5
40Coral points27
40Total auto27
TeleoperatedBlue +45
28Coral scored#29
100Coral points105
3Processor algae#5
4Net algae#11
18Processor points30
16Net points44
34Algae points74
134Total teleop179
Reef
9L4#14
17L3#9
6L2#7
4L1 · trough#4
43Game pieces#50
BargeRed +18
24Cage & park6
24Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +10
6Foul points2
204Total score214

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4909
#23
71.81.7
71.072.6
Auto21.1
Teleop40.5
End10.2
blue by 8.0
190
#8
79.80.5
77.678.1
Auto21.8
Teleop49.0
End9.0
Second
1071
#28
40.51.7
38.840.5
Auto7.3
Teleop28.7
End4.4
blue by 21.8
8013
#14
62.30.5
62.462.9
Auto9.6
Teleop44.8
End7.8
Third
1991
#42
35.91.7
34.235.9
Auto5.1
Teleop27.6
End3.1
blue by 2.4
8567
#22
38.30.5
37.838.3
Auto6.5
Teleop30.1
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
94%Auto oddsEarned98%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
45%Coral oddsEarned81%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
58%Barge oddsEarned94%Barge oddsMissed