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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions136127050100150200250300173124

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+28Auto
+51Teleop
+49Endgame
+49Fouls
AutonomousRed +28
9Leave3
8Coral scored#4
42Coral points20
51Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +23
22Coral scored#17
80Coral points61
2Processor algae#2
4Net algae#3
12Processor points12
16Net points12
28Algae points24
108Total teleop85
Reef
10L4#6
9L3#7
6L2#6
5L1 · trough#2
36Game pieces#26
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +49
0Foul points0
173Total score124

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5000
#24
55.83.1
49.052.2
Auto18.3
Teleop36.2
End1.2
red by 3.2
236
#32
52.60.1
44.244.3
Auto9.0
Teleop36.3
End7.3
Second
131
#26
51.03.1
47.250.3
Auto11.5
Teleop35.7
End3.8
red by 10.1
5459
#31
40.90.1
42.142.2
Auto9.0
Teleop31.2
End0.7
Third
175
#34
32.83.1
30.233.3
Auto7.2
Teleop22.2
End3.3
blue by 0.3
151
#46
33.10.1
35.635.8
Auto8.8
Teleop25.1
End-0.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
86%Auto oddsEarned95%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
8%Coral oddsMissed16%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
25%Barge oddsEarned46%Barge oddsEarned