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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13116480100120140180200220240140138

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+21
Teleop+10
+2Endgame
+2Fouls
AutonomousBlue +21
3Leave6
4Coral scored#8
20Coral points38
23Total auto44
TeleoperatedRed +11
15Coral scored#11
55Coral points40
1Processor algae#3
5Net algae#3
6Processor points18
20Net points12
26Algae points30
81Total teleop70
Reef
10L4#8
4L3#5
3L2#2
2L1 · trough#4
25Game pieces#25
BargeRed +12
36Cage & park24
36Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +2
0Foul points0
140Total score138

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5142
#18
56.91.3
53.855.1
Auto12.7
Teleop36.7
End7.4
blue by 23.4
195
#6
80.30.5
69.769.2
Auto20.1
Teleop50.3
End9.9
Second
3146
#20
44.11.3
37.038.3
Auto8.6
Teleop27.1
End8.4
blue by 1.9
8410
#16
45.90.5
35.735.2
Auto7.7
Teleop28.7
End9.5
Third
9443
#10
39.81.3
29.831.1
Auto5.1
Teleop25.8
End8.9
blue by 2.9
2713
#23
42.70.5
40.840.2
Auto8.3
Teleop27.2
End7.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
82%Auto oddsEarned96%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
13%Coral oddsEarned45%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
80%Barge oddsEarned98%Barge oddsEarned