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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14312980100120160180200115123

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
Teleop+8
Endgame+8
Fouls+8
AutonomousRed +3
0Leave3
4Coral scored#3
19Coral points13
19Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +11
15Coral scored#13
54Coral points47
1Processor algae#4
5Net algae#5
6Processor points24
20Net points20
26Algae points44
80Total teleop91
Reef
9L4#6
5L3#3
3L2#4
2L1 · trough#3
25Game pieces#25
Bargelevel
16Cage & park16
16Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +8
0Foul points0
115Total score123

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3464
#42
44.00.5
42.041.5
Auto7.5
Teleop34.8
End1.6
blue by 8.6
236
#32
52.60.9
43.344.2
Auto9.0
Teleop36.3
End7.3
Second
4311
#22
40.00.5
34.233.7
Auto7.3
Teleop24.2
End8.5
blue by 3.3
228
#28
43.30.9
30.331.2
Auto8.8
Teleop28.0
End6.5
Third
34.10.5
31.831.2
Auto8.0
Teleop18.5
End7.6
red by 4.9
5735
#41
29.20.9
22.223.1
Auto6.5
Teleop20.9
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
81%Auto oddsEarned69%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed9%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
89%Barge oddsEarned73%Barge oddsEarned