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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions211177150200250300197229

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+10
Teleop+12
Endgame+32
Fouls+32
AutonomousBlue +10
3Leave6
8Coral scored#9
38Coral points45
41Total auto51
TeleoperatedBlue +2
25Coral scored#27
90Coral points96
3Processor algae#3
8Net algae#7
18Processor points18
32Net points28
50Algae points46
140Total teleop142
Reef
15L4#7
7L3#12
7L2#10
4L1 · trough#7
44Game pieces#46
BargeBlue +20
16Cage & park36
16Total endgame36
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +32
0Foul points0
197Total score229

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
88
#8
81.00.4
67.967.5
Auto18.7
Teleop50.9
End11.5
red by 9.7
176
#7
71.33.3
62.065.4
Auto20.8
Teleop45.3
End5.3
Second
7407
#25
77.90.4
78.578.1
Auto23.2
Teleop43.6
End11.1
red by 10.4
67.53.3
66.369.7
Auto22.0
Teleop38.1
End7.4
Third
839
#38
59.50.4
56.556.1
Auto10.6
Teleop39.6
End9.3
blue by 7.3
66.83.3
50.754.0
Auto16.8
Teleop45.1
End4.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
93%Auto oddsMissed99%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
83%Coral oddsEarned65%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
99%Barge oddsEarned86%Barge oddsEarned