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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions168127100150200250182116

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
+44Teleop
+66Endgame
+66Fouls
AutonomousBlue +4
9Leave6
4Coral scored#5
20Coral points27
29Total auto33
TeleoperatedRed +48
24Coral scored#11
87Coral points41
3Processor algae#2
3Net algae#4
18Processor points12
12Net points16
30Algae points28
117Total teleop69
Reef
6L4#7
10L3#3
6L2#3
6L1 · trough#3
34Game pieces#22
BargeRed +22
36Cage & park14
36Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +66
0Foul points0
182Total score116

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1699
#11
62.91.6
59.761.3
Auto7.8
Teleop48.9
End6.2
blue by 15.1
7407
#25
77.90.5
76.375.8
Auto23.2
Teleop43.6
End11.1
Second
62.11.6
57.158.7
Auto12.6
Teleop41.1
End8.4
red by 30.2
5112
#37
31.90.5
27.627.1
Auto4.6
Teleop25.8
End1.5
Third
8085
#21
43.71.6
41.042.6
Auto5.8
Teleop31.2
End6.7
red by 27.0
5962
#47
16.80.5
19.619.1
Auto3.5
Teleop10.5
End2.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
87%Auto oddsEarned71%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
62%Coral oddsEarned30%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
92%Barge oddsEarned84%Barge oddsEarned