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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions180132050100150200250300172154

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
+26Teleop
+16Endgame
+18Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
9Leave6
6Coral scored#7
28Coral points34
37Total auto40
TeleoperatedRed +29
23Coral scored#19
83Coral points68
3Processor algae#2
4Net algae#2
18Processor points12
16Net points8
34Algae points20
117Total teleop88
Reef
14L4#8
6L3#6
6L2#6
3L1 · trough#6
36Game pieces#30
BargeBlue +10
16Cage & park26
16Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +18
2Foul points0
172Total score154

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
62.10.4
58.758.3
Auto12.6
Teleop41.1
End8.4
red by 11.7
172
#19
50.41.1
46.947.9
Auto13.3
Teleop29.6
End7.6
Second
236
#32
52.60.4
49.148.6
Auto9.0
Teleop36.3
End7.3
red by 13.3
4572
#40
39.31.1
38.339.3
Auto11.5
Teleop24.3
End3.5
Third
131
#26
51.00.4
52.051.6
Auto11.5
Teleop35.7
End3.8
red by 13.5
8889
#39
37.51.1
35.836.8
Auto9.0
Teleop26.2
End2.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
90%Auto oddsEarned79%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
25%Coral oddsEarned34%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
82%Barge oddsEarned66%Barge oddsEarned