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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12917750100150200250126163

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+6
Teleop+25
Endgame+35
Fouls+37
AutonomousBlue +6
3Leave9
5Coral scored#5
27Coral points27
30Total auto36
TeleoperatedBlue +19
18Coral scored#23
64Coral points83
2Processor algae#2
4Net algae#4
12Processor points12
16Net points16
28Algae points28
92Total teleop111
Reef
8L4#11
7L3#7
4L2#6
4L1 · trough#4
29Game pieces#34
BargeBlue +10
4Cage & park14
4Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +37
0Foul points2
126Total score163

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6201
#43
53.00.2
53.854.0
Auto10.6
Teleop35.8
End6.6
blue by 24.9
7407
#25
77.90.3
75.876.1
Auto23.2
Teleop43.6
End11.1
Second
2713
#23
42.70.2
38.138.2
Auto8.3
Teleop27.2
End7.3
red by 0.2
1757
#15
42.50.3
40.841.1
Auto8.2
Teleop26.7
End7.5
Third
6731
#48
34.00.2
31.831.9
Auto8.8
Teleop24.6
End0.6
blue by 5.5
8724
#27
39.50.3
40.040.3
Auto6.0
Teleop30.6
End2.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
96%Auto oddsEarned87%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
12%Coral oddsMissed72%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
95%Barge oddsMissed97%Barge oddsEarned