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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions169116100150200250164123

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+51Teleop
+41Endgame
+41Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
0Leave6
8Coral scored#3
40Coral points13
40Total auto19
TeleoperatedRed +30
22Coral scored#14
78Coral points52
2Processor algae#2
4Net algae#3
12Processor points12
16Net points12
28Algae points24
106Total teleop76
Reef
11L4#6
8L3#5
7L2#3
4L1 · trough#3
36Game pieces#22
BargeBlue +10
14Cage & park24
14Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +41
4Foul points4
164Total score123

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
138
#17
69.00.2
59.059.2
Auto17.1
Teleop41.9
End10.0
red by 10.1
467
#30
58.90.3
52.953.2
Auto15.0
Teleop33.4
End10.5
Second
66.80.2
58.158.3
Auto16.8
Teleop45.1
End4.9
red by 23.1
8085
#21
43.70.3
42.642.9
Auto5.8
Teleop31.2
End6.7
Third
228
#28
43.30.2
39.539.8
Auto8.8
Teleop28.0
End6.5
red by 26.5
5962
#47
16.80.3
19.119.4
Auto3.5
Teleop10.5
End2.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
96%Auto oddsEarned79%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
24%Coral oddsMissed18%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
82%Barge oddsEarned86%Barge oddsEarned